Greenwich Forum founder Maher Nicolas Firzli joined Asharq News with Bloomberg for an exclusive interview focusing on the economic and financial fallout from the latest round of Israeli Iranian tit-for-tat (“choreographed crisis”)

As much as the Iranian regime’s response to the the April 1st consulate attack seems staged and “telegraphed” in the eyes of Biden’s national security consiglieri, the risk of escalation is real, and, with it, the indefinite closing of both Bab-el-Mandeb and Hormuz Straits: jeopardizing 30%+ of the world’s supply of oil and natural gas, and shattering the lifeline of Asian trade to Western Europe

The word proxy comes from Angevine English and Ancient Northern French (langue d’oïl) “procuracie”, meaning an agent (or supplier) who “takes care of business” on someone’s behalf…

Now, Teheran possesses numerous proxies (Gaza, West Bank, Iraq, South Lebanon, Northern Yemen, and, some say, even Bahrain and Armenia) which may be mobilized more aggressively in the coming weeks in case of escalation

But (1) Israel can “bite the bullet” militarily thanks to its exceptional anti-missile capabilities: RADS Iron Dome and IAI Hetz 3, developed in part with funding from the Pentagon. More importantly, the Israeli government is now led by self-proclaimed disciples of Abba Ahimeir and Hillel Kook who see the world in terms of “Never Again” fight for survival: they’re not inclined to seek a compromise with Hamas or Iran (a “gradual escalation come what may” is probably their preferred route here)

But (2) it remains to be seen if the United States and Europe can afford to pay the high financial and economic costs such a crescendo would entail in a fateful election year …

Watch the video replay of our interview with Maya Hojeij on Asharq News with Bloomberg